According to a new study by Patrick J Egan PHD, Dept of Politics at New York University, the millions and millions of dollars spent on campaign both for same sex marriage and against same sex marriage has been pretty much a waste of time. The study, which looked at 35 states over a ten year time period, also states that pre-election polls typically underestimate the number of voters who are against same sex marriage by about 7%.
According to the study, neither side has done much over the last decade to change anyone’s mind on the issue of legal same sex marriage.
It’s not something a lot of people want to hear. I think that those LGBT citizens out there who continue to press for another ballot measure as quickly as they can get it together, need to really listen to the data from this study. There are those of us, myself included, who’ve been saying for some time now that the citizens of this country have already made up their minds, and they aren’t going to change it. During the debate over whether to proceed in 2010 those of us who felt it was bad timing were simply dismissed by those who wanted to get a measure on the ballot. We were labeled as lazy, un-committed and told we lacked insight. Now it appears that 2012 may not be the right time either. Still the campaign to get enough signatures to get a measure on the ballot failed miserably. Afterward, those who disagreed with the timing were blamed by the campaign which failed. A campaign, mind you, that was so sure of itself and so passionate that they were right and they would succeed.
The reason they failed, and the reason any future ballot measure might fail as well, is that the American people are steadfast in their opinion that we are a threat, that we don’t deserve equal rights. We are not changing their minds. But what if we did succeed with a ballot measure? Then another ballot measure to strike our rights would rear its head and we’d lose them again. And back and forth and back and forth. That’s why this issue should not continue to be decided at the ballot box. At some point, LGBT activists who continue to pursue ballot measures to regain our rights have to deal with this reality.
This is a matter for the courts, which is exactly where it sits at the moment, with today being the day closing arguments were heard in the Prop 8 case in California. Despite the fact that the courts are the logical place for this issue to resolve itself, we still may, as we have before, fail in the courts as well. The decision by the California Supreme Court to revoke their earlier decision, which allowed legal same sex marriage, was clearly a political one. The current case, which, regardless of the outcome, will head to the Federal Supreme Court may face the same challenge. The Supreme Court, as it is now, is slanted to the right by 5-4. Many of their recent judgments have been split exactly on that line. Conservatives in America have lost any sense of right and wrong, in terms of constitutionality. This includes the Supreme Court justices. Corporations, politics and lobbyists are in control of the Supreme Court to a great degree, and unless a shift is made in the makeup of the court, that’s not likely to change.
So where does that leave our movement? Hard to say. I think it should be obvious to anyone paying attention that we’re not convincing the American people of anything. This study says that very clearly. Will we continue to throw money in public campaigns that have no effect. Or will we work as long as we can within the court system to make change happen?
It’s easy for young people to toss all this aside and continue to believe that knocking on doors and sharing stories will accomplish anything. That’s to be expected of people who haven’t seen the inside of this battle over a long period of time. But that’s not reality. Look at Washington. ENDA has been in the works for 16 years, and while it looks like it will pass, who knows at this point? DADT is in the same place. And DOMA, the federal Defense of Marriage Act still stands strong.
My guess is that we’ll see the first significant waves of change in Washington. We’ve seen the beginning of it with the Hate Crimes legislation recently signed by the President, which is the very first federal law to protect LGBT Americans. Then, with a shift in the court in the future, we’ll eventually see our civil rights granted. How many of us will still be around to see it? Hard to say. One thing we should be able to come together on…Americans aren’t changing their mind on this issue.
Read the new study HERE
